Predictions for 2012 (Jun – Nov)
Categories
A spike in responsive websites
A sudden, abnormal surge of responsive sites.
Why?
Whilst responsive web design is nothing new, and has been talked to death over recent months, its uptake differs quite a bit across the web community. Whilst there’s early adopters with a year’s experience under their belt, there’s also some that are yet to delve into RWD.
I believe that people yet to adopt RWD will feel somewhat obligated to do so by now, causing a surge of responsive sites, on top of the steadily climbing number.
It’ll probably be different for every new adopter, but I reckon they’ll starting doing RWD because of a combination of:
- User Awareness
- Client Expectation
- Competitive Pressure
Page size decreases (for some)
As usage of smartphones and tablets skyrocket, poor connectivity will put the limelight on bloated sites; causing some to tackle the problem head-on, from the ground up.
Why?
I’m not saying that us developers are sloppy, but I do think faster connection speeds – like broadband – have allowed us to take certain liberties over recent years. With 3G, or even 4G, it’s unlikely that mobiles will ever match the connection speeds of their desk-dwelling counterparts. Also, there’s the not-so-small matter that in some countries – like the UK – data comes at a price.
Combined, this should be enough to make us realise that we’re actually asking a lot of mobile visitors, and that reducing page size should be higher up in our list of priorities. And to some, it will.
As I mentioned earlier, I’m expecting quite a few late arrivals to the RWD party. Making sites responsive is no mean feat, so I expect anyone taking up the task now to be preoccupied for quite some time. On the other hand, early adopters of RWD will have (hopefully) spent time streamlining their workflows to free up time for other things; it’s these people I expect to invest time taking on page bloat.
As responsive sites start to become the norm amongst many sectors, I expect super fast websites to replace RWD as the next unique selling point.
It’s already happening…
Take a look at Greenbelt by EdgeofmySeat / Radiotype. Not only is it a nice responsive site, but and it loads fast…really fast. Drew McLellan, the developer involved, has written a handy article highlighting some key areas that helped him achieve this.
Font Scaling via. Media Queries
After a period of smaller viewports hogging the limelight, developers will return to give desktops more attention to detail; in the form of appropriately sized text.
Why?
Big type is beautiful, especially on content-oriented sites, like blogs. But with smaller viewports, big text can look a little silly; especially when headings are so big that even a small title takes up four lines.
I predict that more sites will use media queries to feed progressively larger font sizes; so as the viewport gets larger, the type gets bigger. With it, sites will get the best of both worlds: small[ish] text for the small screen, nice big text for the big screen.
- Heading: 24px → 36px
- Bulk: 16px → 22px
It’s already happening…
The personal sites of both Dan Eden and Elliot Jay Stocks have recently undergone a redesign; each site supplying larger font sizes to desktops.
Dramatic decline in usage of IE 6 & 7
A significant drop in worldwide market share for versions 6 and 7 of Internet Explorer.
Why?
IE is a burden to many a developer, and it seems Microsoft know that. Their announcement to introduce auto-updating of IE, release of ie6countdown and some major spend on advertising for IE9 all stand as evidence that Microsoft are serious about phasing out their ageing, troublesome browsers.
I admit that this prediction is heavily reliant on Microsoft keeping its word about auto-updating; but I’m going to be optimistic (for once). According to their announcement, it should already be occurring in small[ish] pockets (e.g. Brazil) and reach the masses by the end of 2012; hence this prediction.
I also predict that, like me, the people affected will do a celebratory jig…probably whilst seated.
A rebuttal to the EU Cookie Law
The businesses and developers within the EU will comply at first, but will turn to protesting, or even rebelling, against the EU Cookie Law.
Why?
Because the law is utter bollocks.
I admit, the initial purpose is well-intentioned, but it’s heavy-handed approach places a burden on the wrong people.
The problem with complying is that it’s damn near impossible to implement anything that functions elegantly; whatever you do, it seems you can’t comply without interrupting the user with unexpected behaviour. In fact, many implementations I’ve seen look more like “Take our Survey” pop-ups or accordions that lurch down from the head of the site; regardless, they just look daunting and out-of-place.
My prediction is that sites will comply…at first.
I believe that because of the EU Cookie Law, sites will see a drop in sales / conversions; and it’ll be hard to outright say “it’s the law” when the sales department stand angrily beside a downwards-pointing graph.
Lose business, just because of opt-in in cookies? “Balderdash”, you might say. But when you consider that the evolution of a website often comes from the data of analytics tools, and that sharing via. social media is pretty much “online word-of-mouth”, you can soon see that most sites will suffer some negative effect from complying.
“But surely people understand cookies!”. Sure, some will…but there’s plenty of people using the internet with zero understanding to how it works; just look at some of the reactions to the Wikipedia blackout (SOPA) and you’ll soon realise there’s some web users completely ignorant to the medium they use so much.





